Bernard Hickey, in the business section of the Dominion Post, says
We are mortgaging the nation’s future by borrowing money overseas to push up the prices of each other’s houses.
There are a number of big issues in Bernard’s small sentance. Firstly, the problem of debt. We are borrowing money overseas because the banks we borrow from cannot find enough surplus within New Zealand. In other words, our kitty is bare, but we’re still spending. So, someone is gleefully plugging the gap – giving us all the credit we want. That’s going to need repaying, sooner or later.
Secondly, the problem of debt being used non-productively: not a scrap is added to the economy by bidding up the price of land. Thirdly, the problem of debt being used to add fake value. The true value of land is its value in use (the productive return from the land), and this does not change, no matter how high the price paid for it. Fourthly, the problem that our own people, not least our children, are the ones penalised by these high prices: they cannot access that most basic of resources. We, and they, are forced to pay a massive premium in the purchase price, a premium built on speculation of buyers everywhere that someone else will pay even more for their land – either in rents or in a subsequent sale.
This is exactly what occurred with the share prices of technology companies during the dotcom boom of the late 90s. Led by their noses by unscrupulous venture capitalists, people kept stupidly buying the shares of Really Bad Companies, Inc – simply on the basis that some other mug would pay even more.
But the reality is that the long-term price of an asset must tend toward its utilisation value – its value from productive use. This is because only that value will be consistently returned to the owner – and therefore, it is the only long-term basis for justifying the purchase cost of the asset.1
Now, in the dotcom boom of the late 90s, people were buying shares in companies whose long-term return was less than zero. The return was less than zero because the typical over-hyped Really Bad Company produced ’stuff’ at a cost greater than anyone would pay on the market. It was simple: their cost of production exceeded price of sale, and they were losing money. But so long as people and institutions kept ensuring a supply of credit by purchasing shares,2 the company kept going, throwing the money away but keeping their doors open.
When enough people realised that the internet, though seemingly a magical technology, could not magically help bad businesses make good money, and began to suspect that the money for speculation was running out, they began to get nervous. Very quickly, people lost confidence that the next mug would buy at a higher price than they themselves paid. So they sold out, as quickly as possible. Credit to these companies stopped. Virtually overnight. And the crash ensued, wiping out billions of dollars’ worth of speculative premium on shares: premium that someone had to pay for. Therefore, it wasn’t just ‘value’ that got wiped out, but many thousands of peoples’ financial well-being.
Now, consider our housing market. Although the utilisation value of land is greater than zero, the prices being paid for it are much greater still. There is a massive speculative premium built in, based simply on the fact that the next mug will pay more than the last purchaser.
What’s the lesson – not only of economic common sense, but of history? There is going to be a significant, as they say, ‘re-adjustment’.
And all those billions that have been borrowed overseas, and used to create that speculative premium, will need to be repaid. With interest. Someone is going to be left holding the can.
Christians, I hope, will not be among those holding the can, because Christians, I hope, will have been taught not to buy into a system that rewards (for a time) unproductive speculation for the sake of greed – and greed which, in the meantime, only robs our own people of purchasing power. The very antithesis of the Old Testament Jubilee, and the more generalised law, “Love thy neighbour”.
I hope.
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1. By using ‘productive use’ as a measure of value, I mean to include ‘quiet enjoyment’. This too is a non-speculative, legitimate value produced and returned to the owner by his or her purchase.
2. If the public keeps buying shares when they are offered on the stock market, venture capitalists and banks will lend even bad companies money, knowing that the credit extended will be covered by the ‘value’ of the shares to be sold.